LA @ ARI – Week 2 2024
LA
ARI
LA
AWAY
10@41
ARI BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: LA 67%Our line: LA -5.8
LA
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.8
OUR LINE
-200
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.030Net EPA / play+0.011
+0.014Offense EPA / play+0.067
+0.044Defense EPA / play+0.056
46.8%Offense success %47.3%
45.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but ARI won. Projected margin was 5.8, the model overestimated by 36.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 32.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -112 | -108 |
| Our fair price | -200 | +200 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1 SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6 SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
206.6 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
M.Stafford3762 yd · 20 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
K.Williams1299 yd · 14 TD
B.Corum207 yd · 0 TD
R.Rivers99 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
P.Nacua79 rec · 990 yd · 3 TD
C.Kupp67 rec · 710 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW12 2023 | LA 37, ARI 14 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW6 2023 | ARI 9, LA 26 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 5.8. The market has LA at -1.0.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, ARI 20, LA 37 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: LA -0.030 against ARI +0.011.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
