Chargers vs Panthers – Week 2 2024
LAC
CAR
LAC
AWAY
26@3
LAC BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 26, Carolina Panthers 3.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 67%Our line: LAC -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
LAC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
67%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
| SOURCE | LAC | CAR | LAC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -225 | +185 | 67.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.100Net EPA / play-0.213
+0.039 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.053 (23)
-0.061 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.160 (32)
42.0% (20)Offense success %41.3% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 23. Off by 16.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@LACW3 2020 | CAR 21, LAC 16 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs CAR
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 6.1. The market has LAC at -5.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 26, CAR 3. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -5.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 2, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 21, LAC 16 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against CAR -0.213.
