LAC @ CAR – Week 2 2024
LAC
CAR
LAC
AWAY
26@3
LAC BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 67%Our line: LAC -6.1
LAC
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.1
OUR LINE
-206
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.100Net EPA / play-0.213
+0.039Offense EPA / play-0.053
-0.061Defense EPA / play+0.160
42.0%Offense success %41.3%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 23. Off by 16.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -225 | +185 |
| Our fair price | -206 | +206 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.49
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4 SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9 SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
191.8 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3870 yd · 23 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins905 yd · 9 TD
G.Edwards365 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert306 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey82 rec · 1149 yd · 7 TD
Q.Johnston55 rec · 711 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@LACW3 2020 | CAR 21, LAC 16 | LAC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 6.1. The market has LAC at -5.0.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 21, LAC 16 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against CAR -0.213.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
