CAR @ LAC – Week 3 2020
CAR
LAC
CAR
AWAY
21@16
CAR BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 59%Our line: LAC -3.0
LAC
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-142
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.004Offense EPA / play+0.027
+0.077Defense EPA / play+0.026
45.0%Offense success %43.2%
47.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but CAR won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +230 | -265 |
| Our fair price | +142 | -142 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Mike Davis642 yd · 6 TD
Teddy Bridgewater279 yd · 5 TD
Christian McCaffrey225 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore66 rec · 1193 yd · 4 TD
Robbie Chosen95 rec · 1096 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CARW2 2024 | LAC 26, CAR 3 | LAC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.0. The market has LAC at -6.0.
The model projects 48.2 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 26, CAR 3 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: CAR -0.073 against LAC +0.001.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
