Panthers vs Chargers – Week 3 2020
CAR
LAC
CAR
AWAY
21@16
CAR BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 21, Los Angeles Chargers 16.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 6 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 59%Our line: LAC -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.004 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.027 (15)
+0.077 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
45.0% (19)Offense success %43.2% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but CAR won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CARW2 2024 | LAC 26, CAR 3 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.0. The market has LAC at -6.0.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 21, LAC 16. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 3, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 4.7 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 26, CAR 3 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: CAR -0.073 against LAC +0.001.
