2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ LAC – Week 3 2020
CAR
LAC
CAR
AWAY
21@16
CAR +5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 59%Projected margin: 3.7
LAC
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but CAR won. Projected margin was 3.7 -- the model overestimated by 8.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -265 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1SEASON PPR
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
245.1SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CARW2 2024 | LAC 26, CAR 3 | LAC | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES