CHI @ ATL – Week 3 2020
CHI
ATL
CHI
AWAY
30@26
CHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 54%Our line: CHI -1.2
CHI
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.2
OUR LINE
-116
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.033Net EPA / play-0.042
-0.028Offense EPA / play+0.021
+0.006Defense EPA / play+0.063
43.6%Offense success %43.2%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 1.2. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +122 | -135 |
| Our fair price | -116 | +116 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
44%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
David Montgomery
RB
264.8 SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9 SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Mitchell Trubisky2055 yd · 16 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1070 yd · 8 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson232 yd · 1 TD
Mitchell Trubisky195 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Robinson102 rec · 1250 yd · 6 TD
Darnell Mooney
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@CHIW17 2023 | ATL 17, CHI 37 | CHI | W |
| CHI@ATLW11 2022 | CHI 24, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 1.2. The market has CHI at +2.5.
The model projects 47.0 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, ATL 17, CHI 37 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.033 against ATL -0.042.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
