Bears vs Falcons – Week 3 2020
CHI
ATL
CHI
AWAY
30@26
CHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 30, Atlanta Falcons 26.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: CHI 54%Our line: CHI -1.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -1.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.033Net EPA / play-0.042
-0.028 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (16)
+0.006 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (21)
43.6% (22)Offense success %43.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 1.2. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
264.8 SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9 SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Mitchell Trubisky2055 yd · 16 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1070 yd · 8 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson232 yd · 1 TD
Mitchell Trubisky195 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Robinson102 rec · 1250 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@ATLW6 2026 | CHI 31, ATL 23 | ATL | L |
| ATL@CHIW17 2023 | ATL 17, CHI 37 | CHI | W |
| CHI@ATLW11 2022 | CHI 24, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs ATL
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 1.2. The market has CHI at +2.5.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 30, ATL 26. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at +2.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 3, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 1.0 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 31, ATL 23 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.033 against ATL -0.042.
