ATL @ CHI – Week 17 2023
ATL
CHI
ATL
AWAY
17@37
CHI BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 57%Our line: CHI -2.2
CHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.2
OUR LINE
-130
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.040Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.099Offense EPA / play-0.049
-0.059Defense EPA / play-0.042
41.1%Offense success %41.8%
39.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 20. Off by 17.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
COLD GAME
32°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | +130 | -130 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
32°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3 SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1 SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
174.4 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Bijan Robinson976 yd · 4 TD
Tyler Allgeier683 yd · 4 TD
Desmond Ridder193 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Drake London69 rec · 905 yd · 2 TD
Kyle Pitts53 rec · 667 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@ATLW11 2022 | CHI 24, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
| CHI@ATLW3 2020 | CHI 30, ATL 26 | CHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 2.2. The market has CHI at -3.0.
The model projects 45.1 combined points. The market total is 39.0.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, CHI 24, ATL 27 in Week 11 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: ATL -0.040 against CHI -0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
