Falcons vs Bears – Week 17 2023
ATL
CHI
ATL
AWAY
17@37
CHI BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 17, Chicago Bears 37.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 57%Our line: CHI -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -2.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.040Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.099 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (19)
-0.059 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (14)
41.1% (20)Offense success %41.8% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 20. Off by 17.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
COLD GAME
32°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
32°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@ATLW6 2026 | CHI 31, ATL 23 | ATL | L |
| CHI@ATLW11 2022 | CHI 24, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
| CHI@ATLW3 2020 | CHI 30, ATL 26 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 2.2. The market has CHI at -3.0.
Chicago Bears won, ATL 17, CHI 37. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 6.1 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 31, ATL 23 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: ATL -0.040 against CHI -0.007.
