Raiders vs Colts – Week 17 2023
LV
IND
LV
AWAY
20@23
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 20, Indianapolis Colts 23.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 58%Our line: IND -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -2.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.019
-0.097 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (16)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (21)
41.2% (19)Offense success %40.8% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 2.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW5 2025 | LV 6, IND 40 | IND | W |
| IND@LVW10 2022 | IND 25, LV 20 | LV | L |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
| IND@LVW14 2020 | IND 44, LV 27 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 2.8. The market has IND at -3.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, LV 20, IND 23. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -3.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 2.7 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, LV 6, IND 40 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: LV -0.037 against IND -0.019.
