2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ IND – Week 17 2023
LV
IND
LV
AWAY
20@23
IND +3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 58%Projected margin: 0.3
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
0.3
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 0.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
181.1SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW5 2025 | LV 6, IND 40 | IND | W |
| IND@LVW10 2022 | IND 25, LV 20 | LV | L |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
| IND@LVW14 2020 | IND 44, LV 27 | IND | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES