Rams vs Giants – Week 17 2023
LA
NYG
LA
AWAY
26@25
LA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 26, New York Giants 25.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 1 Giants.
Model confidence: LA 72%Our line: LA -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -7.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.155
+0.039 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.174 (29)
-0.009 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (19)
44.7% (8)Offense success %37.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 1. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@LAW2 2026 | NYG 6, LA 28 | LA | W |
| LA@NYGW6 2021 | LA 38, NYG 11 | LA | W |
| NYG@LAW4 2020 | NYG 9, LA 17 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs NYG
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project LA by 7.9. The market has LA at -6.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 26, NYG 25. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -6.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 17, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.1, 1.4 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, NYG 6, LA 28 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against NYG -0.155.
