LA @ NYG – Week 17 2023
LA
NYG
LA
AWAY
26@25
LA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: LA 72%Our line: LA -7.9
LA
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.9
OUR LINE
-258
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.155
+0.039Offense EPA / play-0.174
-0.009Defense EPA / play-0.019
44.7%Offense success %37.9%
42.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 1. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -298 | +240 |
| Our fair price | -258 | +258 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
72%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5 SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0 SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford3965 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Kyren Williams1144 yd · 12 TD
Royce Freeman319 yd · 2 TD
Ronnie Rivers129 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Puka Nacua105 rec · 1486 yd · 6 TD
Cooper Kupp59 rec · 737 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@NYGW6 2021 | LA 38, NYG 11 | LA | W |
| NYG@LAW4 2020 | NYG 9, LA 17 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project LA by 7.9. The market has LA at -6.0.
The model projects 42.1 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 38, NYG 11 in Week 6 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against NYG -0.155.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
