Chargers vs Broncos – Week 17 2023
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
9@16
DEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 9, Denver Broncos 16.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Chargers, 4 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.088Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.076 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.058 (20)
+0.012 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.019 (26)
41.0% (22)Offense success %42.1% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 4.9. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.9. The market has DEN at -3.5.
Denver Broncos won, LAC 9, DEN 16. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -3.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.8, 4.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Denver Broncos: LAC -0.088 against DEN -0.077.
