2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ PHI – Week 17 2023
ARI
PHI
ARI
AWAY
35@31
ARI +4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 79%Projected margin: 9.4
PHI
PICK SIDE
-12.0
SPREAD
9.4
PROJ MARGIN
-562
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but ARI won. Projected margin was 9.4 -- the model overestimated by 13.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.0 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -562 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -750 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
146.4SEASON PPR
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@ARIW5 2022 | PHI 20, ARI 17 | PHI | W |
| PHI@ARIW15 2020 | PHI 26, ARI 33 | ARI | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES