Cardinals vs Eagles – Week 17 2023
ARI
PHI
ARI
AWAY
35@31
ARI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 35, Philadelphia Eagles 31.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 79% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Cardinals, 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 79%Our line: PHI -10.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -12.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -10.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.157Net EPA / play+0.005
-0.071 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.054 (8)
+0.085 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.049 (29)
40.5% (25)Offense success %45.9% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but ARI won. Projected margin was 10.7, the model overestimated by 14.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@ARIW5 2022 | PHI 20, ARI 17 | PHI | W |
| PHI@ARIW15 2020 | PHI 26, ARI 33 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 10.7. The market has PHI at -12.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 35, PHI 31. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 79% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -12.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 12.0 points.
In Week 17, the Arizona Cardinals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.3, 3.7 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 20, ARI 17 in Week 5 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: ARI -0.157 against PHI +0.005.
