Steelers vs Seahawks – Week 17 2023
PIT
SEA
PIT
AWAY
30@23
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 30, Seattle Seahawks 23.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 5 Seahawks.
Model confidence: PIT 58%Our line: PIT -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.035
-0.073 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (11)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.051 (30)
42.0% (17)Offense success %43.9% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 7. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2070 yd · 6 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@PITW2 2025 | SEA 31, PIT 17 | SEA | W |
| SEA@PITW6 2021 | SEA 20, PIT 23 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs SEA
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.8. The market has PIT at +4.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 30, SEA 23. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +4.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 17, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 5.2 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 31, PIT 17 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.013 against SEA -0.035.
