PIT @ SEA – Week 17 2023
PIT
SEA
PIT
AWAY
30@23
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 58%Our line: PIT -2.8
PIT
PICK SIDE
+4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.8
OUR LINE
-139
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.035
-0.073Offense EPA / play+0.016
-0.060Defense EPA / play+0.051
42.0%Offense success %43.9%
41.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 7. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +185 | -225 |
| Our fair price | -139 | +139 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT +4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.91
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
34%
DIFFERENCE
+25%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
George Pickens
WR
208.8 SEASON PPR
Jaylen Warren
RB
196.4 SEASON PPR
Najee Harris
RB
195.5 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2070 yd · 6 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1035 yd · 8 TD
Jaylen Warren784 yd · 4 TD
Calvin Austin III57 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
George Pickens63 rec · 1140 yd · 5 TD
Diontae Johnson51 rec · 717 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@PITW2 2025 | SEA 31, PIT 17 | SEA | W |
| SEA@PITW6 2021 | SEA 20, PIT 23 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.8. The market has PIT at +4.5.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 31, PIT 17 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.013 against SEA -0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
