49ers vs Commanders – Week 17 2023
SF
WAS
SF
AWAY
27@10
SF BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 27, Washington Commanders 10.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 5 Commanders.
Model confidence: SF 78%Our line: SF -10.3
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -10.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.255Net EPA / play-0.190
+0.174 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.106 (27)
-0.082 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (31)
51.1% (1)Offense success %41.0% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 10.3. Actual: 17. Off by 6.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@SFW16 2022 | WAS 20, SF 37 | SF | W |
| WAS@SFW14 2020 | WAS 23, SF 15 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs WAS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 10.3. The market has SF at -14.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 27, WAS 10. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -14.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 17, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 3.5 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, WAS 20, SF 37 in Week 16 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against WAS -0.190.
