Commanders vs 49ers – Week 14 2020
WAS
SF
WAS
AWAY
23@15
WAS BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 23, San Francisco 49ers 15.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 5 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 54%Our line: SF -1.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -1.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.023Net EPA / play+0.042
-0.067 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.008 (18)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
41.2% (29)Offense success %46.0% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but WAS won. Projected margin was 1.5, the model overestimated by 9.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2 SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
191.4 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Alex Smith1582 yd · 6 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson795 yd · 11 TD
J.D. McKissic365 yd · 1 TD
Peyton Barber258 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin87 rec · 1118 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@WASW17 2023 | SF 27, WAS 10 | SF | W |
| WAS@SFW16 2022 | WAS 20, SF 37 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 1.5. The market has SF at -3.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 23, SF 15. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, WAS 10 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, San Francisco 49ers: WAS +0.023 against SF +0.042.
