Saints vs Eagles – Week 14 2020
NO
PHI
NO
AWAY
21@24
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 21, Philadelphia Eagles 24.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 4 Eagles.
Model confidence: NO 74%Our line: NO -8.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -8.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.177Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.093 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.089 (30)
-0.084 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (13)
47.6% (8)Offense success %40.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO S-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but PHI won. Projected margin was 8.8, the model overestimated by 11.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Drew Brees2942 yd · 24 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NOW3 2024 | PHI 15, NO 12 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW17 2022 | NO 20, PHI 10 | PHI | L |
| NO@PHIW11 2021 | NO 29, PHI 40 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs PHI
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 74% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project NO by 8.8. The market has NO at -7.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, NO 21, PHI 24. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -7.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 14, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 3.7 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 15, NO 12 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.177 against PHI -0.107.
