2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ PHI – Week 11 2021
NO
PHI
NO
AWAY
29@40
PHI +11
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 57%Projected margin: -4.0
NO
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.0 -- the model overestimated by 15.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7SEASON PPR
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NOW3 2024 | PHI 15, NO 12 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW17 2022 | NO 20, PHI 10 | PHI | L |
| NO@PHIW14 2020 | NO 21, PHI 24 | NO | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES