Saints vs Eagles – Week 11 2021
NO
PHI
NO
AWAY
29@40
PHI BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 29, Philadelphia Eagles 40.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Saints, 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: NO 57%Our line: NO -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -2.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.074 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (10)
-0.109 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (17)
40.6% (28)Offense success %46.9% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but PHI won. Projected margin was 2.3, the model overestimated by 13.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NOW3 2024 | PHI 15, NO 12 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW17 2022 | NO 20, PHI 10 | PHI | L |
| NO@PHIW14 2020 | NO 21, PHI 24 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs PHI
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 2.3. The market has NO at +2.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, NO 29, PHI 40. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +2.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the New Orleans Saints were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 5.3 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 15, NO 12 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: NO +0.035 against PHI +0.059.
