Steelers vs Chargers – Week 11 2021
PIT
LAC
PIT
AWAY
37@41
LAC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 37, Los Angeles Chargers 41.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Steelers, 3 Chargers.
Model confidence: PIT 52%Our line: PIT -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -0.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.074 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (6)
+0.016 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (24)
39.1% (31)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LACW10 2025 | PIT 10, LAC 25 | LAC | W |
| LAC@PITW3 2024 | LAC 10, PIT 20 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs LAC
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.7. The market has PIT at +5.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, PIT 37, LAC 41. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +5.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 11, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.2 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, PIT 10, LAC 25 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: PIT -0.090 against LAC +0.061.
