2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ LAC – Week 11 2021
PIT
LAC
PIT
AWAY
37@41
LAC +4
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✓
Model confidence: PIT 52%Projected margin: -2.0
PIT
PICK SIDE
+5.5
SPREAD
-2.0
PROJ MARGIN
+221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but LAC won. Projected margin was 2.0 -- the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +5.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | +221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +220 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1SEASON PPR
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LACW10 2025 | PIT 10, LAC 25 | LAC | W |
| LAC@PITW3 2024 | LAC 10, PIT 20 | PIT | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES