PIT @ LAC – Week 11 2021
PIT
LAC
PIT
AWAY
37@41
LAC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 52%Our line: PIT -0.7
PIT
PICK SIDE
+5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-0.7
OUR LINE
-108
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.074Offense EPA / play+0.095
+0.016Defense EPA / play+0.033
39.1%Offense success %47.6%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +220 | -251 |
| Our fair price | -108 | +108 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT +5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
30%
DIFFERENCE
+22%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
Chase Claypool59 rec · 860 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LACW10 2025 | PIT 10, LAC 25 | LAC | W |
| LAC@PITW3 2024 | LAC 10, PIT 20 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.7. The market has PIT at +5.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, PIT 10, LAC 25 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: PIT -0.090 against LAC +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
