2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NYJ – Week 11 2021
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
24@17
MIA +7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 60%Projected margin: -4.0
MIA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 4.0. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -181 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
173.6SEASON PPR
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES