TIER SPICK: TEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 76%Projected margin: 13.3
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN S-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but HOU won. Projected margin was 13.3 -- the model overestimated by 22.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HOU4 LISTEDHardy Nickerson
LB · Concussion
OUT
Deshaun Watson
QB · Not injury related - personal matter
OUT
Cre'von LeBlanc
CB · Illness
QUESTIONABLE
Jonathan Greenard
DE · Foot
QUESTIONABLE
TEN8 LISTEDHEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS