Colts vs Bills – Week 11 2021
IND
BUF
IND
AWAY
41@15
IND BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 41, Buffalo Bills 15.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: BUF 56%Our line: BUF -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.242
+0.051 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.101 (4)
+0.006 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.141 (1)
44.3% (16)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but IND won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 28.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 33.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@INDW10 2024 | BUF 30, IND 20 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.2. The market has BUF at -7.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 41, BUF 15. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 30, IND 20 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: IND +0.045 against BUF +0.242.
