IND @ BUF – Week 11 2021
IND
BUF
IND
AWAY
41@15
IND BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 56%Our line: BUF -2.2
BUF
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.2
OUR LINE
-130
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.242
+0.051Offense EPA / play+0.101
+0.006Defense EPA / play-0.141
44.3%Offense success %47.7%
45.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but IND won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 28.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 33.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +274 | -320 |
| Our fair price | +130 | -130 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-18%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1 SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0 SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor1811 yd · 18 TD
Nyheim Hines276 yd · 2 TD
Carson Wentz215 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman88 rec · 1082 yd · 6 TD
Zach Pascal38 rec · 384 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@INDW10 2024 | BUF 30, IND 20 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.2. The market has BUF at -7.5.
The model projects 49.1 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 30, IND 20 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: IND +0.045 against BUF +0.242.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
