2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ BUF – Week 11 2021
IND
BUF
IND
AWAY
41@15
IND +26
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 56%Projected margin: 3.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but IND won. Projected margin was 3.1 -- the model overestimated by 29.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 33.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -320 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@INDW10 2024 | BUF 30, IND 20 | BUF | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES