Patriots vs Falcons – Week 11 2021
NE
ATL
NE
AWAY
25@0
NE BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 25, Atlanta Falcons 0.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons.
Model confidence: NE 64%Our line: NE -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.135Net EPA / play-0.180
+0.069 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.098 (28)
-0.066 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.082 (29)
48.4% (4)Offense success %40.4% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 25. Off by 20.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs ATL
Our model takes New England Patriots at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 4.7. The market has NE at -7.0.
New England Patriots won, NE 25, ATL 0. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 11, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 1.6 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
New England Patriots, ATL 23, NE 24 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against ATL -0.180.
