NE @ ATL – Week 11 2021
NE
ATL
NE
AWAY
25@0
NE BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: NE 64%Our line: NE -4.7
NE
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-175
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.135Net EPA / play-0.180
+0.069Offense EPA / play-0.098
-0.066Defense EPA / play+0.082
48.4%Offense success %40.4%
42.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 25. Off by 20.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -329 | +280 |
| Our fair price | -175 | +175 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9 SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
186.3 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones3801 yd · 22 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris929 yd · 15 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson606 yd · 5 TD
Brandon Bolden226 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers83 rec · 866 yd · 2 TD
Kendrick Bourne55 rec · 800 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 4.7. The market has NE at -7.0.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
New England Patriots, ATL 23, NE 24 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against ATL -0.180.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
