2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ KC – Week 11 2021
DAL
KC
DAL
AWAY
9@19
KC +10
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 51%Projected margin: 1.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 1.1. Actual: 10. Off by 8.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -134 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
Dak Prescott
QB
320.6SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
252.1SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
232.8SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@DALW13 2025 | KC 28, DAL 31 | DAL | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES