Cowboys vs Chiefs – Week 11 2021
DAL
KC
DAL
AWAY
9@19
KC BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 9, Kansas City Chiefs 19.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 51%Our line: KC -0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -0.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.187Net EPA / play+0.119
+0.096 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.144 (1)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.025 (20)
47.0% (7)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 10. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@DALW13 2025 | KC 28, DAL 31 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 0.4. The market has KC at -2.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, DAL 9, KC 19. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -2.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 56.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 9.7 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, KC 28, DAL 31 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.187 against KC +0.119.
