Ravens vs Bears – Week 11 2021
BAL
CHI
BAL
AWAY
16@13
BAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 16, Chicago Bears 13.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens, 3 Bears.
Model confidence: BAL 63%Our line: BAL -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.065Net EPA / play-0.127
+0.005 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.100 (29)
+0.070 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (21)
46.4% (10)Offense success %41.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 4.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@BALW8 2025 | CHI 16, BAL 30 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CHI
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.5. The market has BAL at -5.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 16, CHI 13. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -5.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 11, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.8, 0.8 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, CHI 16, BAL 30 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL -0.065 against CHI -0.127.
