2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ CHI – Week 11 2021
BAL
CHI
BAL
AWAY
16@13
BAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 63%Projected margin: -5.7
BAL
PICK SIDE
-5.0
SPREAD
-5.7
PROJ MARGIN
-205
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 5.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -205 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -226 | Won · +$0.49 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
228.3SEASON PPR
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@BALW8 2025 | CHI 16, BAL 30 | BAL | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES