Bears vs Ravens – Week 8 2025
CHI
BAL
CHI
AWAY
16@30
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 16, Baltimore Ravens 30.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Bears, 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 64%Our line: BAL -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.010
+0.080 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (12)
+0.018 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
45.8% (9)Offense success %44.6% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 14. Off by 9.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CHIW11 2021 | BAL 16, CHI 13 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.0. The market has BAL at -2.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, CHI 16, BAL 30. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -2.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 8, the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 1.3 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 16, CHI 13 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against BAL +0.010.
