CHI @ BAL – Week 8 2025
CHI
BAL
CHI
AWAY
16@30
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 64%Our line: BAL -5.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.0
OUR LINE
-181
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.010
+0.080Offense EPA / play+0.034
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.024
45.8%Offense success %44.6%
46.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 14. Off by 9.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | +181 | -181 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CHIW11 2021 | BAL 16, CHI 13 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.0. The market has BAL at -2.5.
The model projects 44.2 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 16, CHI 13 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against BAL +0.010.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
