2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ BAL – Week 8 2025
CHI
BAL
CHI
AWAY
16@30
BAL +14
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 64%Projected margin: 3.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
3.0
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 14. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2SEASON PPR
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CHIW11 2021 | BAL 16, CHI 13 | BAL | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES