49ers vs Texans – Week 8 2025
SF
HOU
SF
AWAY
15@26
HOU BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 15, Houston Texans 26.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 3 Texans.
Model confidence: SF 60%Our line: SF -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
SF +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.088 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (21)
+0.070 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.131 (1)
48.3% (4)Offense success %41.3% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but HOU won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 14.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs HOU
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 3.3. The market has SF at +2.5.
Houston Texans won, SF 15, HOU 26. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at +2.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 8, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 4.6 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, HOU 7, SF 23 in Week 17 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: SF +0.018 against HOU +0.118.
