SF @ HOU · Week 8 2025

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

HOU

AWAY

15@26

HOU +11

FINAL · WEEK 8

2025 SEASON

HOU

HOME

TIER C

PICK: SF

PICK LOSTATS ✗

SF 60%

40%

Model confidence: SF 60%

Projected margin: 0.3

PICK SIDE

+2.5

SPREAD

0.3

PROJ MARGIN

+143

MODEL ML

—

LIVE ML

MISSED

VS SPREAD

TEAM COMPARISON

SF	METRIC	HOU
+0.018	NET EPA/PLAY	+0.118
+0.088	OFF EPA/PLAY	-0.013
+0.070	DEF EPA/PLAY	-0.131
437	POINTS FOR	404
371	POINTS AGAINST	295
56.6%	PASS RATE	57.0%
85.0%	RED ZONE TD%	75.0%
22.7%	4TH DOWN GO%	13.7%

SF ANALYTICS →HOU ANALYTICS →

GAME NARRATIVE

SF C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.

MISSED

Model picked SF but HOU won. Projected margin was 0.3 -- the model overestimated by 10.7 points.

ATS MISS

Missed the spread by 8.5 points.

Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.

BETTING LINE

FIELD	VALUE	NOTES
SPREAD	+2.5	SF market line
MODEL ML	+143	Our fair-value moneyline
LIVE ML	—	Last observed market ML
RESULT	+143	Lost · -$1.00

GAME TOTAL

PREDICTED TOTAL

46.1

ALL GAME TOTALS →

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

SF

Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)

HOU

No noteworthy trends

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

DOME

CLIMATE CONTROLLED

WIN PROBABILITY

TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON

SF

C.McCaffrey

RB

416.6SEASON PPR

B.Purdy

QB

177.4SEASON PPR

J.Jennings

WR

173.3SEASON PPR

HOU

N.Collins

WR

226.2SEASON PPR

C.Stroud

QB

208.5SEASON PPR

D.Schultz

TE

INJURY REPORTWEEK 8

SF8 LISTED

Jake Brendel

C · Hamstring

OUT

Bryce Huff

DE · Hamstring

OUT

Yetur Gross-Matos

DE · Knee

OUT

Brock Purdy

QB · Toe

OUT

Ricky Pearsall

WR · Knee

OUT

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS

GAME	SCORE	PICK	RESULT
HOU@SFW17 2021	HOU 7, SF 23	SF	W

FULL COMPARISON →

SF ANALYTICS

EPA, coaching, picks

HOU ANALYTICS

EPA, coaching, picks

COMPARE

WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES

TEN@IND

14-38

NYJ@CIN

39-38

NYG@PHI

20-38

DAL@DEN

24-44

WAS@KC

7-28

CLE@NE

13-32

TB@NO

23-3

← WEEK 8 PICKS FULL RESULTS LEDGER →

HOME TEAM WIN PROBABILITY OVER GAME TIME · SOURCE: NFLFASTR

Luke Gifford

LB · Hamstring

QUESTIONABLE

Deommodore Lenoir

CB · Quadricep

QUESTIONABLE

Spencer Burford

T · Knee

QUESTIONABLE

HOU5 LISTED

Christian Kirk

WR · Hamstring

OUT

Nico Collins

WR · Concussion

OUT

Alijah Huzzie

CB · Knee

OUT

Denico Autry

DE · Knee

QUESTIONABLE

Jaylin Smith

CB · Hamstring

QUESTIONABLE

SF SCHEME RATES

19 GAMES

PLAY ACTION

24.5%

BLITZ RATE

22.9%

MOTION

54.7%

RPO

0.6%

SCREEN

7.0%

NO HUDDLE

3.7%

AVG PASS RUSHERS

4.3

SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON

HOU SCHEME RATES

19 GAMES

PLAY ACTION

25.3%

BLITZ RATE

22.4%

MOTION

44.7%

RPO

1.3%

SCREEN

5.1%

NO HUDDLE

3.5%

AVG PASS RUSHERS

4.3

SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON

NEXT GEN STATS

EXP COMP %

70.6%

C.J. StroudHOU

TIME TO THROW

2.69s

C.J. StroudHOU

SEPARATION

3.6 yds

Xavier HutchinsonHOU

RUSH EFFICIENCY

3.1

Woody MarksHOU

AGGRESSIVENESS

31.3%

Mac JonesSF

AVG YAC

5.4 yds

Xavier HutchinsonHOU

GREEN = ELITE VS LEAGUE

SOURCE: NFL NEXT GEN STATS

SF ADVANCED STATS

PASSING

BAD THROW %

12.5%

DROP %

2.9%

PRESSURE %

16.5%

RUSHING

YBC/ATT

2.1

YAC/ATT

1.2

BROKEN TACKLES

26

DEFENSE

COMP% ALLOWED

72.0%

PASSER RTG ALLOWED

89.5

MISSED TACKLE %

10.2%

SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON

HOU ADVANCED STATS

PASSING

BAD THROW %

19.1%

DROP %

5.3%

PRESSURE %

19.4%

RUSHING

YBC/ATT

2.5

YAC/ATT

1.7

BROKEN TACKLES

25

DEFENSE

COMP% ALLOWED

63.4%

PASSER RTG ALLOWED

80.8

MISSED TACKLE %

10.7%

SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON

SF @ HOU – Week 8 2025