2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ SF – Week 17 2021
HOU
SF
HOU
AWAY
7@23
SF +16
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 63%Projected margin: 6.3
SF
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
6.3
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 16. Off by 9.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -602 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
104.3SEASON PPR
SF
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
339.0SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@HOUW8 2025 | SF 15, HOU 26 | SF | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES