HOU @ SF – Week 17 2021
HOU
SF
HOU
AWAY
7@23
SF BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 63%Our line: SF -4.5
SF
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-170
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.212Net EPA / play+0.120
-0.138Offense EPA / play+0.087
+0.074Defense EPA / play-0.034
37.4%Offense success %45.7%
48.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 16. Off by 11.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +463 | -602 |
| Our fair price | +170 | -170 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
83%
DIFFERENCE
-20%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8 SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0 SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
104.3 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
Nico Collins33 rec · 446 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.5. The market has SF at -14.0.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Houston Texans, SF 15, HOU 26 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: HOU -0.212 against SF +0.120.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
