Texans vs 49ers – Week 17 2021
HOU
SF
HOU
AWAY
7@23
SF BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 7, San Francisco 49ers 23.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 5 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 63%Our line: SF -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.212Net EPA / play+0.120
-0.138 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (7)
+0.074 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
37.4% (32)Offense success %45.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 16. Off by 11.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.5. The market has SF at -14.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, HOU 7, SF 23. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -14.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 17, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 2.0 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Houston Texans, SF 15, HOU 26 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: HOU -0.212 against SF +0.120.
