2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ GB – Week 17 2021
MIN
GB
MIN
AWAY
10@37
GB +27
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: GB 64%Projected margin: 5.6
GB
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 27. Off by 21.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
COLD GAME
11°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -702 | Won · +$0.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
11°F
WIND
9 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
206.3SEASON PPR
GB
Davante Adams
WR
344.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
333.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES