Vikings vs Packers – Week 12 2025
MIN
GB
MIN
AWAY
6@23
GB BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 6, Green Bay Packers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 72%Our line: GB -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.082
-0.116 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (4)
-0.100 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (22)
42.6% (23)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 17. Off by 9.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW1 2026 | GB 22, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project GB by 7.8. The market has GB at -6.5.
Green Bay Packers won, MIN 6, GB 23. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 12, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 5.0 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, GB 22, MIN 39 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: MIN -0.016 against GB +0.082.
