CAR @ SF – Week 12 2025
CAR
SF
CAR
AWAY
9@20
SF BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 66%Our line: SF -5.6
SF
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.6
OUR LINE
-195
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.039Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.067Defense EPA / play+0.070
43.1%Offense success %48.3%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 11. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +310 | -395 |
| Our fair price | +195 | -195 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0 SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3 SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young3011 yd · 23 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
R.Dowdle1076 yd · 6 TD
C.Hubbard511 yd · 1 TD
B.Young216 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
T.McMillan70 rec · 1014 yd · 7 TD
J.Coker33 rec · 394 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 5.6. The market has SF at -7.5.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 37, CAR 15 in Week 5 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: CAR -0.107 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
