Giants vs Lions – Week 12 2025
NYG
DET
NYG
AWAY
27@34
DET BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 27, Detroit Lions 34.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Giants, 5 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 80%Our line: DET -11.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -11.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.012 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.081 (7)
+0.087 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.010 (14)
42.1% (25)Offense success %45.2% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 11.5. Actual: 7. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@NYGW11 2022 | DET 31, NYG 18 | NYG | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 11.5. The market has DET at -14.0.
Detroit Lions won, NYG 27, DET 34. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -14.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 12, the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.9 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 31, NYG 18 in Week 11 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: NYG -0.075 against DET +0.091.
