NYG @ DET – Week 12 2025
NYG
DET
NYG
AWAY
27@34
DET BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 80%Our line: DET -11.5
DET
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-11.5
OUR LINE
-405
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.012Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.087Defense EPA / play-0.010
42.1%Offense success %45.2%
47.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 11.5. Actual: 7. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +675 | -1050 |
| Our fair price | +405 | -405 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
88%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6 SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9 SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
160.8 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
J.Dart2272 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy740 yd · 2 TD
J.Dart487 yd · 9 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
W.Robinson92 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
D.Slayton37 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@NYGW11 2022 | DET 31, NYG 18 | NYG | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 11.5. The market has DET at -14.0.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 31, NYG 18 in Week 11 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: NYG -0.075 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
