2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ LV – Week 12 2025
CLE
LV
CLE
AWAY
24@10
CLE +14
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 63%Projected margin: 2.7
LV
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CLE won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 16.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7SEASON PPR
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW4 2024 | CLE 16, LV 20 | LV | W |
| LV@CLEW15 2021 | LV 16, CLE 14 | CLE | L |
| LV@CLEW8 2020 | LV 16, CLE 6 | CLE | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES