Browns vs Raiders – Week 12 2025
CLE
LV
CLE
AWAY
24@10
CLE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 24, Las Vegas Raiders 10.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Browns.
Model confidence: LV 63%Our line: LV -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.094Net EPA / play-0.240
-0.190 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.215 (32)
-0.096 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (21)
34.5% (32)Offense success %37.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CLE won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 18.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW4 2024 | CLE 16, LV 20 | LV | W |
| LV@CLEW15 2021 | LV 16, CLE 14 | CLE | L |
| LV@CLEW8 2020 | LV 16, CLE 6 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 4.5. The market has LV at -3.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 24, LV 10. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 10.5 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, CLE 16, LV 20 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.094 against LV -0.240.
