CLE @ LV – Week 12 2025
CLE
LV
CLE
AWAY
24@10
CLE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: LV 63%Our line: LV -4.5
LV
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-170
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.094Net EPA / play-0.240
-0.190Offense EPA / play-0.215
-0.096Defense EPA / play+0.024
34.5%Offense success %37.6%
40.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CLE won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 18.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +136 | -162 |
| Our fair price | +170 | -170 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LV -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for LV. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4 SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8 SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
S.Sanders1400 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Q.Judkins827 yd · 7 TD
D.Sampson175 yd · 0 TD
S.Sanders169 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
H.Fannin72 rec · 731 yd · 6 TD
J.Jeudy50 rec · 602 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW4 2024 | CLE 16, LV 20 | LV | W |
| LV@CLEW15 2021 | LV 16, CLE 14 | CLE | L |
| LV@CLEW8 2020 | LV 16, CLE 6 | CLE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 4.5. The market has LV at -3.0.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 35.5.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, CLE 16, LV 20 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.094 against LV -0.240.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
