Raiders vs Browns – Week 15 2021
LV
CLE
LV
AWAY
16@14
LV BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 16, Cleveland Browns 14.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 60%Our line: CLE -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.012
-0.019 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.013 (18)
+0.045 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.001 (14)
44.9% (13)Offense success %43.9% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LV won. Projected margin was 3.4, the model overestimated by 5.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4804 yd · 23 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
Hunter Renfrow103 rec · 1038 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW12 2025 | CLE 24, LV 10 | LV | L |
| CLE@LVW4 2024 | CLE 16, LV 20 | LV | W |
| LV@CLEW8 2020 | LV 16, CLE 6 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 3.4. The market has CLE at +3.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 16, CLE 14. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +3.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 6.4 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, MON 5:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 24, LV 10 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: LV -0.064 against CLE +0.012.
