2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ CLE – Week 15 2021
LV
CLE
LV
AWAY
16@14
LV +2
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✓
Model confidence: CLE 60%Projected margin: 3.4
CLE
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
3.4
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LV won. Projected margin was 3.4 -- the model overestimated by 5.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +131 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
226.0SEASON PPR
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW12 2025 | CLE 24, LV 10 | LV | L |
| CLE@LVW4 2024 | CLE 16, LV 20 | LV | W |
| LV@CLEW8 2020 | LV 16, CLE 6 | CLE | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES