2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ IND – Week 15 2021
NE
IND
NE
AWAY
17@27
IND +10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 52%Projected margin: -0.2
NE
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
-0.2
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but IND won. Projected margin was 0.2 -- the model overestimated by 10.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -102 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
186.3SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW13 2024 | IND 25, NE 24 | IND | W |
| IND@NEW10 2023 | IND 10, NE 6 | NE | L |
| IND@NEW9 2022 | IND 3, NE 26 | NE | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES