Patriots vs Colts – Week 15 2021
NE
IND
NE
AWAY
17@27
IND BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 17, Indianapolis Colts 27.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: NE 52%Our line: NE -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.135Net EPA / play+0.045
+0.069 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.051 (13)
-0.066 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (15)
48.4% (4)Offense success %44.3% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but IND won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW13 2024 | IND 25, NE 24 | IND | W |
| IND@NEW10 2023 | IND 10, NE 6 | NE | L |
| IND@NEW9 2022 | IND 3, NE 26 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs IND
Our model takes New England Patriots at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 0.7. The market has NE at -1.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, NE 17, IND 27. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -1.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 15, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.3 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SAT 8:20 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 25, NE 24 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against IND +0.045.
