2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ DEN – Week 15 2021
CIN
DEN
CIN
AWAY
15@10
CIN +5
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 54%Projected margin: 1.0
DEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.0
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but CIN won. Projected margin was 1.0 -- the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -155 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9SEASON PPR
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DENW4 2025 | CIN 3, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CINW17 2024 | DEN 24, CIN 30 | DEN | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES