CIN @ DEN – Week 15 2021
CIN
DEN
CIN
AWAY
15@10
CIN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 54%Our line: DEN -1.5
DEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.5
OUR LINE
-119
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.069Net EPA / play+0.004
+0.057Offense EPA / play+0.015
-0.012Defense EPA / play+0.011
44.2%Offense success %44.7%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but CIN won. Projected margin was 1.5, the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +140 | -155 |
| Our fair price | +119 | -119 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4611 yd · 34 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1205 yd · 13 TD
Samaje Perine246 yd · 1 TD
Joe Burrow118 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase81 rec · 1455 yd · 13 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1091 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DENW4 2025 | CIN 3, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CINW17 2024 | DEN 24, CIN 30 | DEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 1.5. The market has DEN at -3.0.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, CIN 3, DEN 28 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against DEN +0.004.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
