Bengals vs Broncos – Week 15 2021
CIN
DEN
CIN
AWAY
15@10
CIN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 15, Denver Broncos 10.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 54%Our line: DEN -1.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -1.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.069Net EPA / play+0.004
+0.057 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
-0.012 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (18)
44.2% (17)Offense success %44.7% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but CIN won. Projected margin was 1.5, the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DENW4 2025 | CIN 3, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CINW17 2024 | DEN 24, CIN 30 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 1.5. The market has DEN at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 15, DEN 10. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -3.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 2.3 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, CIN 3, DEN 28 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against DEN +0.004.
