2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ DEN – Week 4 2025
CIN
DEN
CIN
AWAY
3@28
DEN +25
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 63%Projected margin: 2.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 25. Off by 22.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@CINW17 2024 | DEN 24, CIN 30 | DEN | L |
| CIN@DENW15 2021 | CIN 15, DEN 10 | DEN | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES