CIN @ DEN – Week 4 2025
CIN
DEN
CIN
AWAY
3@28
DEN BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 63%Our line: DEN -4.6
DEN
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.6
OUR LINE
-173
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.050
+0.130Defense EPA / play-0.088
45.5%Offense success %44.2%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 25. Off by 20.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +360 | -470 |
| Our fair price | +173 | -173 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
79%
DIFFERENCE
-16%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6 SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@CINW17 2024 | DEN 24, CIN 30 | DEN | L |
| CIN@DENW15 2021 | CIN 15, DEN 10 | DEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.6. The market has DEN at -7.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, DEN 24, CIN 30 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: CIN -0.138 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
