Bengals vs Broncos – Week 4 2025
CIN
DEN
CIN
AWAY
3@28
DEN BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 3, Denver Broncos 28.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: DEN 63%Our line: DEN -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.009 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.050 (10)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (6)
45.5% (11)Offense success %44.2% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 25. Off by 20.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@CINW17 2024 | DEN 24, CIN 30 | DEN | L |
| CIN@DENW15 2021 | CIN 15, DEN 10 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.6. The market has DEN at -7.5.
Denver Broncos won, CIN 3, DEN 28. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -7.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 4, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, DEN 24, CIN 30 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: CIN -0.138 against DEN +0.138.
