Ravens vs Chiefs – Week 4 2025
BAL
KC
BAL
AWAY
20@37
KC BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 20, Kansas City Chiefs 37.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 60%Our line: KC -3.5
ODDS
GAME TOTAL
PREDICTED TOTAL
45.6
VEGAS LINE
48.5
Projected by the earlier model, before the October 20 rebuild. It is not covered by the test results described for the new model.
SPREAD
KC +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.010Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.034 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.035 (11)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.020 (12)
44.6% (13)Offense success %44.5% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 17. Off by 13.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@KCW1 2024 | BAL 20, KC 27 | BAL | L |
| KC@BALW2 2021 | KC 35, BAL 36 | KC | L |
| KC@BALW3 2020 | KC 34, BAL 20 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 3.5. The market has KC at +2.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, BAL 20, KC 37. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at +2.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 2.9 below the market. That is a projection, not a pick.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, BAL 20, KC 27 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: BAL +0.010 against KC +0.055.
