2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ KC – Week 4 2025
BAL
KC
BAL
AWAY
20@37
KC +17
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 60%Projected margin: 1.1
KC
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
1.1
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 1.1. Actual: 17. Off by 15.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@KCW1 2024 | BAL 20, KC 27 | BAL | L |
| KC@BALW2 2021 | KC 35, BAL 36 | KC | L |
| KC@BALW3 2020 | KC 34, BAL 20 | BAL | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES