Jets vs Dolphins – Week 4 2025
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
AWAY
21@27
MIA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 21, Miami Dolphins 27.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jets, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 67%Our line: MIA -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.274Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.127 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (22)
+0.147 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (26)
40.7% (29)Offense success %41.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 5.8. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW12 2023 | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.8. The market has MIA at -2.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NYJ 21, MIA 27. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -2.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 1.2 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, MON 7:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: NYJ -0.274 against MIA -0.105.
