Jets vs Dolphins – Week 12 2026
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Dolphins over the Jets at 60% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: MIA 60%Our line: MIA -3.3
80% range around our line: NYJ by 14 to MIA by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the MIA game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -3.3
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
MIA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
| SPORTSBOOK | NYJ | MIA | MIA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 12 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.037Net EPA / play-0.224
-0.025 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (29)
-0.062 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.108 (28)
42.8% (16)Offense success %37.6% (30)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
MIA is our early forecast in NYJ @ MIA (Week 12, 2026). The model assigns 60% confidence and projects MIA by 3.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability. The margin models project MIA by 3.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New York Jets: NYJ +0.037 against MIA -0.224.
