NYJ @ MIA – Week 12 2026
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
MIA
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: MIA 73%Projected margin: -6.5
MIA
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-6.5
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.127Offense EPA / play-0.017
+0.147Defense EPA / play+0.088
40.7%Offense success %41.9%
45.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: MIA at 73%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
MIA generates -0.017 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
MIA has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
RED ZONE
MIA converts 80% in the red zone vs 65% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Multiple signals align in MIA's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | MIA market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
B.Hall36 rec · 350 yd · 1 TD
A.Mitchell24 rec · 301 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,259PASSyds2,660
1,684RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW7 2026 | — | MIA | — |
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIA
Who is favored in New York Jets at Miami Dolphins?
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 73% win probability. The margin models project MIA by 6.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins game?
Miami Dolphins, 34-10 in Week 14 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the Miami Dolphins?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: NYJ -0.274 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
