Ravens vs Texans – Week 12 2026
BAL
HOU
BAL
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Ravens over the Texans at 58% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: BAL 58%Our line: BAL -2.8
80% range around our line: HOU by 15 to BAL by 20. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BAL game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -2.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
47%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
| SPORTSBOOK | BAL | HOU | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 12 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.168Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.151 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (13)
-0.017 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (9)
50.7% (2)Offense success %42.4% (18)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BAL at 58%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BAL generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. HOU's defense allows -0.043. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
BAL has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against HOU.
DRIVE EFF
BAL scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.5 for HOU. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in BAL's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@BALW5 2025 | HOU 44, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@HOUW17 2024 | BAL 31, HOU 2 | BAL | W |
| HOU@BALW1 2023 | HOU 9, BAL 25 | BAL | W |
| BAL@HOUW2 2020 | BAL 33, HOU 16 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs HOU
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability. The margin models project BAL by 2.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 44, BAL 10 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.168 against HOU +0.048.
