BAL @ HOU – Week 12 2026
BAL
HOU
BAL
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: HOU 73%Projected margin: -6.9
HOU
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-6.9
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.034Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.131
44.6%Offense success %41.3%
44.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
HOU is our early forecast in BAL @ HOU (Week 12, 2026). The model assigns 73.2% confidence and projects HOU by 6.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | HOU market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
D.Hopkins22 rec · 330 yd · 2 TD
I.Likely27 rec · 307 yd · 1 TD
VS
2,549PASSyds3,041
2,285RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@BALW5 2025 | HOU 44, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@HOUW17 2024 | BAL 31, HOU 2 | BAL | W |
| HOU@BALW1 2023 | HOU 9, BAL 25 | BAL | W |
| BAL@HOUW2 2020 | BAL 33, HOU 16 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs HOU
Who is favored in Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 73% win probability. The margin models project HOU by 6.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans game?
Houston Texans, 44-10 in Week 5 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Baltimore Ravens or the Houston Texans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: BAL +0.010 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
