Texans vs Ravens – Week 1 2023
HOU
BAL
HOU
AWAY
9@25
BAL BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 9, Baltimore Ravens 25.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Texans, 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 70%Our line: BAL -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
81%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
| SOURCE | HOU | BAL | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +380 | -500 | 81.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.014Net EPA / play+0.215
-0.028 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.066 (5)
-0.043 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.149 (2)
40.9% (23)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 16. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@BALW5 2025 | HOU 44, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@HOUW17 2024 | BAL 31, HOU 2 | BAL | W |
| BAL@HOUW2 2020 | BAL 33, HOU 16 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.2. The market has BAL at -9.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, HOU 9, BAL 25. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -9.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 1, the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 44, BAL 10 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: HOU +0.014 against BAL +0.215.
