HOU @ BAL – Week 1 2023
HOU
BAL
HOU
AWAY
9@25
BAL BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 70%Our line: BAL -7.2
BAL
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.2
OUR LINE
-238
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.014Net EPA / play+0.215
-0.028Offense EPA / play+0.066
-0.043Defense EPA / play-0.149
40.9%Offense success %47.4%
40.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 16. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +380 | -500 |
| Our fair price | +238 | -238 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0 SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
167.3 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.J. Stroud4108 yd · 23 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary898 yd · 4 TD
Dameon Pierce416 yd · 2 TD
C.J. Stroud167 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Nico Collins80 rec · 1297 yd · 8 TD
Tank Dell47 rec · 709 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@BALW5 2025 | HOU 44, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@HOUW17 2024 | BAL 31, HOU 2 | BAL | W |
| BAL@HOUW2 2020 | BAL 33, HOU 16 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.2. The market has BAL at -9.5.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 44, BAL 10 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: HOU +0.014 against BAL +0.215.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
