2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ SEA – Week 1 2023
LA
SEA
LA
AWAY
30@13
LA +17
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
SEA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SEA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SEA 69%Projected margin: 5.5
SEA
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but LA won. Projected margin was 5.5 -- the model overestimated by 22.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -218 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1SEASON PPR
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
227.3SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SEAW16 2025 | LA 37, SEA 38 | LA | L |
| SEA@LAW11 2025 | SEA 19, LA 21 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW18 2024 | SEA 30, LA 25 | LA | L |
| LA@SEAW9 2024 | LA 26, SEA 20 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW11 2023 | SEA 16, LA 17 | SEA | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES