LA @ SEA – Week 1 2023
LA
SEA
LA
AWAY
30@13
LA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 69%Our line: SEA -6.8
SEA
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.8
OUR LINE
-227
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.035
+0.039Offense EPA / play+0.016
-0.009Defense EPA / play+0.051
44.7%Offense success %43.9%
42.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but LA won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 23.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +180 | -218 |
| Our fair price | +227 | -227 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5 SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0 SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford3965 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Kyren Williams1144 yd · 12 TD
Royce Freeman319 yd · 2 TD
Ronnie Rivers129 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Puka Nacua105 rec · 1486 yd · 6 TD
Cooper Kupp59 rec · 737 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SEAW16 2025 | LA 37, SEA 38 | LA | L |
| SEA@LAW11 2025 | SEA 19, LA 21 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW18 2024 | SEA 30, LA 25 | LA | L |
| LA@SEAW9 2024 | LA 26, SEA 20 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW11 2023 | SEA 16, LA 17 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 6.8. The market has SEA at -4.5.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, LA 37, SEA 38 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against SEA -0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
