Rams vs Seahawks – Week 1 2023
LA
SEA
LA
AWAY
30@13
LA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 30, Seattle Seahawks 13.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 69%Our line: SEA -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
SEA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
66%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
| SOURCE | LA | SEA | SEA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +180 | -218 | 66.4% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.035
+0.039 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (11)
-0.009 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.051 (30)
44.7% (8)Offense success %43.9% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but LA won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 23.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SEAW16 2025 | LA 37, SEA 38 | LA | L |
| SEA@LAW11 2025 | SEA 19, LA 21 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW18 2024 | SEA 30, LA 25 | LA | L |
| LA@SEAW9 2024 | LA 26, SEA 20 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW11 2023 | SEA 16, LA 17 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 6.8. The market has SEA at -4.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 30, SEA 13. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -4.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, LA 37, SEA 38 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against SEA -0.035.
