Rams vs Seahawks – Week 16 2025
LA
SEA
LA
AWAY
37@38
SEA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 37, Seattle Seahawks 38.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: LA 58%Our line: LA -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.206Net EPA / play+0.150
+0.145 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.033 (13)
-0.061 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.117 (2)
51.8% (1)Offense success %46.3% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SEA won. Projected margin was 2.8, the model overestimated by 3.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@LAW11 2025 | SEA 19, LA 21 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW18 2024 | SEA 30, LA 25 | LA | L |
| LA@SEAW9 2024 | LA 26, SEA 20 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW11 2023 | SEA 16, LA 17 | SEA | L |
| LA@SEAW1 2023 | LA 30, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs SEA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 2.8. The market has LA at +1.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, LA 37, SEA 38. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +1.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 16, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 4.0 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, SEA 19, LA 21 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.206 against SEA +0.150.
