JAX @ DEN – Week 16 2025
JAX
DEN
JAX
AWAY
34@20
JAX BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 70%Our line: DEN -6.9
DEN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.9
OUR LINE
-229
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.030Offense EPA / play+0.050
-0.105Defense EPA / play-0.088
44.4%Offense success %44.2%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but JAX won. Projected margin was 6.9, the model overestimated by 20.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +145 | -175 |
| Our fair price | +229 | -229 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9 SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@JAXW8 2022 | DEN 21, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
| DEN@JAXW2 2021 | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 6.9. The market has DEN at -3.5.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 21, JAX 17 in Week 8 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: JAX +0.136 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
