2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ DEN – Week 16 2025
JAX
DEN
JAX
AWAY
34@20
JAX +14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 70%Projected margin: 5.2
DEN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
5.2
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but JAX won. Projected margin was 5.2 -- the model overestimated by 19.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@JAXW8 2022 | DEN 21, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
| DEN@JAXW2 2021 | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES