Jaguars vs Broncos – Week 16 2025
JAX
DEN
JAX
AWAY
34@20
JAX BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 34, Denver Broncos 20.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jaguars, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 70%Our line: DEN -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -6.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.030 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.050 (10)
-0.105 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (6)
44.4% (15)Offense success %44.2% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but JAX won. Projected margin was 6.9, the model overestimated by 20.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW2 2026 | JAX 13, DEN 20 | JAX | L |
| DEN@JAXW8 2022 | DEN 21, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
| DEN@JAXW2 2021 | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 6.9. The market has DEN at -3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 34, DEN 20. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -3.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 16, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, JAX 13, DEN 20 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: JAX +0.136 against DEN +0.138.
