2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ CAR – Week 16 2025
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
20@23
CAR +3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 60%Projected margin: -0.4
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-0.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CAR won. Projected margin was 0.4 -- the model overestimated by 3.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW13 2023 | CAR 18, TB 21 | TB | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES