TB @ CAR – Week 16 2025
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
20@23
CAR BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: TB 60%Our line: TB -3.5
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.5
OUR LINE
-151
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.039
+0.013Defense EPA / play+0.067
42.4%Offense success %43.1%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CAR won. Projected margin was 3.5, the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 |
| Our fair price | -151 | +151 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9 SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7 SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW13 2023 | CAR 18, TB 21 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 3.5. The market has TB at -3.0.
The model projects 45.1 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CAR 14, TB 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.022 against CAR -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
