2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ TB – Week 17 2024
CAR
TB
CAR
AWAY
14@48
TB +34
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 77%Projected margin: 9.3
TB
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
9.3
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 9.3. Actual: 34. Off by 24.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -500 | Won · +$0.26 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
130.8SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW13 2023 | CAR 18, TB 21 | TB | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES