Dolphins vs Browns – Week 17 2024
MIA
CLE
MIA
AWAY
20@3
MIA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 20, Cleveland Browns 3.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: MIA 70%Our line: MIA -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -7.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.017Net EPA / play-0.201
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.183 (32)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (18)
44.3% (15)Offense success %37.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 17. Off by 9.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CLEW7 2025 | MIA 6, CLE 31 | MIA | L |
| CLE@MIAW10 2022 | CLE 17, MIA 39 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs CLE
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.2. The market has MIA at -3.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 20, CLE 3. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -3.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 32.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 12.1 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Cleveland Browns, MIA 6, CLE 31 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.017 against CLE -0.201.
