2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ SF – Week 17 2024
DET
SF
DET
AWAY
40@34
DET +6
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER A
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 71%Projected margin: -5.6
DET
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 5.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -230 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2SEASON PPR
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@DETW1 2021 | SF 41, DET 33 | SF | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES