DET @ SF – Week 17 2024
DET
SF
DET
AWAY
40@34
DET BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: DET 71%Our line: DET -7.6
DET
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.6
OUR LINE
-249
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.232Net EPA / play+0.028
+0.170Offense EPA / play+0.069
-0.062Defense EPA / play+0.041
50.1%Offense success %46.1%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 7.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -230 | +190 |
| Our fair price | -249 | +249 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9 SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5 SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4629 yd · 37 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1412 yd · 16 TD
D.Montgomery775 yd · 12 TD
C.Reynolds139 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown115 rec · 1263 yd · 12 TD
J.Williams58 rec · 1001 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 7.6. The market has DET at -4.0.
The model projects 45.0 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 41, DET 33 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.232 against SF +0.028.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
