Lions vs 49ers – Week 17 2024
DET
SF
DET
AWAY
40@34
DET BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 40, San Francisco 49ers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 4 49ers.
Model confidence: DET 71%Our line: DET -7.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -7.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.232Net EPA / play+0.028
+0.170 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (10)
-0.062 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
50.1% (1)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 7.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs SF
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 7.6. The market has DET at -4.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 40, SF 34. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -4.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 17, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 5.5 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 41, DET 33 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.232 against SF +0.028.
