Jets vs Bills – Week 17 2024
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
14@40
BUF BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 14, Buffalo Bills 40.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 83% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jets.
Model confidence: BUF 83%Our line: BUF -13.1
ODDS
GAME TOTAL
PREDICTED TOTAL
46.0
VEGAS LINE
44.5
Projected by the earlier model, before the October 20 rebuild. It is not covered by the test results described for the new model.
SPREAD
BUF -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -13.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.197
-0.013 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.189 (2)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (12)
42.6% (18)Offense success %47.5% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 13.1. Actual: 26. Off by 12.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW1 2023 | BUF 16, NYJ 22 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 83% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.1. The market has BUF at -10.0.
Buffalo Bills won, NYJ 14, BUF 40. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 83% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -10.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 17, the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 1.5 above the market. That is a projection, not a pick.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: NYJ -0.037 against BUF +0.197.
