2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ BUF – Week 17 2024
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
14@40
BUF +26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 83%Projected margin: 13.3
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
13.3
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 13.3. Actual: 26. Off by 12.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -520 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
15 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
240.9SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW1 2023 | BUF 16, NYJ 22 | BUF | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES