Chiefs vs Steelers – Week 17 2024
KC
PIT
KC
AWAY
29@10
KC BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 29, Pittsburgh Steelers 10.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs, 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: KC 67%Our line: KC -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.070 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.034 (20)
+0.011 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (10)
47.6% (6)Offense success %40.4% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 19. Off by 13.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@KCW16 2021 | PIT 10, KC 36 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs PIT
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 5.9. The market has KC at -3.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 29, PIT 10. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 2.7 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, WED 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, PIT 10, KC 36 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.059 against PIT -0.016.
