2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ PIT – Week 17 2024
KC
PIT
KC
AWAY
29@10
KC +19
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 67%Projected margin: -3.4
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 19. Off by 15.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -162 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
187.2SEASON PPR
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@KCW16 2021 | PIT 10, KC 36 | KC | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES