SEA @ CHI – Week 17 2024
SEA
CHI
SEA
AWAY
6@3
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 67%Our line: SEA -5.9
SEA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.9
OUR LINE
-202
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.030Offense EPA / play-0.082
-0.012Defense EPA / play+0.006
43.9%Offense success %39.9%
44.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 5.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -192 | +160 |
| Our fair price | -202 | +202 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SEA
G.Smith
QB
266.0 SEASON PPR
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
253.0 SEASON PPR
D.Metcalf
WR
191.2 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
G.Smith4320 yd · 21 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
K.Walker573 yd · 7 TD
Z.Charbonnet569 yd · 8 TD
G.Smith272 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
J.Smith-Njigba100 rec · 1130 yd · 6 TD
D.Metcalf66 rec · 992 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@SEAW16 2021 | CHI 25, SEA 24 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.9. The market has SEA at -3.5.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 25, SEA 24 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.018 against CHI -0.088.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
