Seahawks vs Bears – Week 17 2024
SEA
CHI
SEA
AWAY
6@3
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 6, Chicago Bears 3.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 4 Bears.
Model confidence: SEA 67%Our line: SEA -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -5.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.030 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.082 (26)
-0.012 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (14)
43.9% (16)Offense success %39.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 5.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@SEAW16 2021 | CHI 25, SEA 24 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs CHI
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.9. The market has SEA at -3.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 6, CHI 3. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -3.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 25, SEA 24 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.018 against CHI -0.088.
