2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ HOU – Week 17 2024
BAL
HOU
BAL
AWAY
31@2
BAL +29
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 68%Projected margin: -3.8
BAL
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-3.8
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 29. Off by 25.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -245 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@BALW5 2025 | HOU 44, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| HOU@BALW1 2023 | HOU 9, BAL 25 | BAL | W |
| BAL@HOUW2 2020 | BAL 33, HOU 16 | BAL | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES