Ravens vs Texans – Week 17 2024
BAL
HOU
BAL
AWAY
31@2
BAL BY 29
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 31, Houston Texans 2.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens, 3 Texans.
Model confidence: BAL 68%Our line: BAL -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.269Net EPA / play+0.015
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.050 (22)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.065 (5)
50.0% (2)Offense success %38.8% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 29. Off by 22.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@BALW5 2025 | HOU 44, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| HOU@BALW1 2023 | HOU 9, BAL 25 | BAL | W |
| BAL@HOUW2 2020 | BAL 33, HOU 16 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs HOU
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.2. The market has BAL at -5.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 31, HOU 2. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -5.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 17, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, WED 4:30 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 44, BAL 10 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against HOU +0.015.
