2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ LA – Week 17 2024
ARI
LA
ARI
AWAY
9@13
LA +4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 73%Projected margin: 7.3
LA
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
7.3
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 7.3. Actual: 4. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -340 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8SEASON PPR
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
| LA@ARIW12 2023 | LA 37, ARI 14 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW6 2023 | ARI 9, LA 26 | LA | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES